There’s been some talk in the weather community of severe weather ahead. The model above is the 18z GFS, valid for Saturday, February 18th. That’s nearly 10 days from now, so there’s little to no skill in a forecast this far out. Several people have asked me about this, so I just wanted to [...]
A good Tuesday afternoon to you! You sure can’t beat weather like this in early February, but big changes are on the way. Models have trended sharply colder by the weekend, so our forecast has changed a bit for Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, temperatures warmed into the lower and middle 60s this afternoon. The [...]
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Monday , February 6, 2012 The Weather Battle Tuesday Morning : Update The pressure different across the mountains has grown to roughly 9 mb and downslope winds along the western Cascade slopes have increased . nbsp Gust of 70 mph reported at Enumclaw . Very strong winds also gusting to 70 mph on the western side of the Columbia . Gorge A heroic meteorological conflict has been taking place between two implacable foes : nbsp 1 easterly winds passing over the Cascades and moving down its western slopes , and 2 a low-level inversion or cold stable air layer near the surface . nbsp When 1 wins , the temperatures stay warm at night or surge upwards . nbsp If 2 prevails , the location
Good Monday afternoon to you! It’s been a very nice day across central and west Alabama, with ample sunshine and mild temperatures. After a cool start to the day, many spots have reached the lower to middle 60s. Some spots in Alabama did deal with a little extra cloud cover today, but skies are [...]
An extremely positively tilted but stretched trough in the Ohio Valley will drift slightly southward as the remnant upper level low ejects eastward in the trough. Cold advection at the surface with a high pressure system building eastward out of the Rockies, combined with rich low level moisture tonight will bring a fog potential to [...]
Below is a discussion from the National Hurricane Center. There is a developing low pressure in the gulf that has a chance to become a sub-tropical storm. Either way, gusty winds and heavy rain will become likely across Florida over the next few days. The last time a tropical storm or sub tropical storm developed [...]
All models show some nice weather for this week. They have agreement through the work week then part ways rapidly by next Saturday. Relatively high heights yet freshening zonal flow over the deep south will help drag the tail end of northern stream systems through the area as shortwaves around the upper low pass by [...]
Showers have moved out of many parts of West Alabama including Fayette, Pickens and Lamar Counties. Soon the rain will be out of Tuscaloosa and will continue moving to the east over the next couple of hours. Cooler air will move in behind the rain. Tonight temperatures will drop into the middle 50s, tommorow night [...]
Good Saturday to you! If you have outdoor plans or some yard work, you better get a start on it. Lots of rain is moving this way out of Mississippi. A slow moving cold front is crossing the Mississippi River now, and a band of moderate to heavy rain is slowly moving east with it. [...]
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Friday , February 3, 2012 High Pressure Surprises A ridge of high pressure spreads over the region , with generally clear , skies , lots of sun , and no precipitation . nbsp Time to forget about the weather No way . a great deal of interesting action , from extraordinary high temperatures , gale-force winds , air quality problems , freezing fog , and an upper ridge that is amazingly . persistent With an upper level ridge overhead and the associated high pressure to the west of us , a very large east-west pressure gradient developed over the Cascades , approaching 10.5 mb earlier today . nbsp Washington State Sea Level Pressure Forecast for 10AM this Morning . big gradient over the
Good Friday afternoon! Much of the area is dealing with a batch of light to moderate rain this afternoon. A warm front is moving into southwest Alabama now, and a large batch of rain has developed ahead of the front. As the warm front lifts into the Tuscaloosa area later tonight, the batch of moderate [...]
Both the NAM and the GFS seem to be in better agreement for 36 hours out from the 12Z run. Both are forecasting a widespread rain event, with the only difference being the GFS is wanting to soak the Deep … Continue reading →
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Thursday , February 2, 2012 GroundFrog versus GroundHog As an atmospheric scientist , my role is to interpret a wide range of information . even unconventional information . to provide new insights into meteorological phenomenon . nbsp I will do so here . nbsp During the last week , two animal prognosticators have provided a vision of the weather future that are seemingly at odds , but really . aren't The Snohomish GroundFrog reveals his secrets On one hand there is the well-known frogprognosticator of Snohomish , Washington--otherwise known as the GroundFrog . nbsp At a solemn ceremony on Saturday , the wise frog predicted good weather for the remainder of the winter for the
While the Winter of 2010-2011 had a La Niña, it also saw anomalously negative NAO and AO throughout much of its entirety. Winter 2011-2012 has seen La Niña as well, only as anomalously negative as NAO and AO were last … Continue reading →
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Tuesday , January 31, 2012 Wayward La Nina This has been a La Nina winter , but you might not know it . nbsp In fact , the La Nina has been intensifying as indicated by the cooling waters of the tropical Pacific , as shown by the plot of the sea surface temperatures Nina 3.4 area of the tropical Pacific seen below . nbsp The figure actually snows SST anomalies . differences from normal . which are now more than 1C cooler than . normal La Ninas are usually associated with wetter than normal fall and winter over the Northwest , but so far we have been a bit drier than normal see plot for Seattle And snowfall in the mountains , which should be above normal , particularly after
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Monday , January 30, 2012 Destruction Hits Two Sacred Weather Locations I was worried last week that when I revealed the secrets of the Devil's Weather Triangle near Napavine that some of the weather deities would be displeased . nbsp Such are the risks I take for this blog Unfortunately , my fears were realized and two of the most sacred weather sites of the Northwest have been struck and damaged by sudden and unexpected severe weather . nbsp Not strong enough to destroy them , but enough to deliver a message . nbsp This can not be consider a . coincidence My Napavine Triangle blog went out late Tuesday , and by Thursday morning a terrible fate struck my favorite weather-themed
Did those of you around Whidbey Island hear a big clap of thunder around 1:30 a.m. Sunday morning? This brilliant lightning strike, captured on tape, was likely the culprit.
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Saturday , January 28, 2012 An Unusual Winter Around the Country The weather is rarely normal and most years there are some large excursions from average conditions , but this year is rapidly becoming memorable over the eastern two-thirds of the country and . Alaska In much of eastern U.S . winter hasn't really taken hold , with record maximum temperatures occurring on many days , and monthly averages being way above normal . nbsp Here are the anomalies difference from normal of the daily-average temperatures across the U.S . for the past 90 and 30 days see below For the last 90 days nearly all locations over and west of the Rockies has been much warmer than normal . with some
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Thursday , January 26, 2012 The Truth About the Pacific Data Void How often do you hear statements like this Forecasting skill is bad on the West Coast because there are few weather observations over the . Pacific We don't know what is coming from the west , so it is impossible to forecast in the . Northwest In reality these statements are really not . true We have a huge amount of information over the Pacific and that is probably the main reason why weather forecasts have improved so much over the past 30 . years So what observing assets do we have out there Be ready to be impressed We start with weather buoys , as shown by this map red diamonds indicate stations that have not
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Tuesday , January 24, 2012 The Bermuda Triangle of Northwest Weather Some things are beyond scientific understanding . nbsp Weather phenomena that can not be explained by forecast models and high-tech observations . Occurrences that are known by local meteorologists but are rarely spoken about in public . nbsp Perhaps the best-known example : nbsp the Napavine Triangle Napavine is located in southwest Washington , between Olympia and Portland--a few miles south of Chehalis see graphic A closer look at the terrain reveals a triangular valley second map A valley with extreme and often bizarre . weather Doubtful You won't be in a few minutes . nbsp During the snows last week , which
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Sunday , January 22, 2012 Southeast Olympic Snowstorm and Teasing the Seattle Times It is snowing right now at fairly low elevations to the southeast of the Olympics--something that happens a few times every winter . nbsp For example , here is an image from Dale Ireland's home above Hood Canal At the same time it is raining and in the upper 30s and lower 40s in much of the rest of the area . nbsp How can this be The National Weather Service has been spotlighting this possibility for a while and the local high resolution models were going for this snow for days see forecast from yesterday below-24h snowfall ending 4 PM for forecast initialized 4 PM . yesterday The key to this is
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Saturday , January 21, 2012 The Other Snow Story During the past several days , this blog was been fixated on lowland snow and ice . nbsp Later I would like to talk more about the ice storm , which has been one of the major meteorological disasters of the past decade , with roughly 300,000 customer losing power , massive loss of trees , extensive road closures , and loss of . life But another important weather story has been the huge increase in snowpack during the past week over the Cascades . nbsp Below is the NOAA snowdepth graphics comparing January 13th to today . nbsp Big increases . nbsp Enough to make ski operators and outdoor enthusiasts . smile Before After A week ago ,
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Thursday , January 19, 2012 The End is Near This snow sleet freezing rain evident is basically done . nbsp And we are not talking about forecasts . observations show its . demise First , only a handful of observing sites in the south Sound are indicating a few light snow or freezing drizzle showers . this will end soon The radar shows NOTHING : offshore But most important of all , the profiler at Sand Point in Seattle shows southerly winds and warmer temperatures rapidly descending towards the surface , at this rate we should see the end of the cool northerly flow over the Sound and a replacement by warming southerlies by daybreak latest observations on the left side I have
This is a long forecast given i will be in New Orleans from Saturday through Wednesday for the AMS conference. This means I will not be able to update any severe warnings Sunday Night/Monday. I may ask someone else to cover … Continue reading →
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Tuesday , January 17, 2012 A Snowstorm of Two Characters The latest forecast models runs suggest a snow event of two characters . nbsp Over the mountains and over southwest Washington there will be large quantities of snow . nbsp And substantial snow over the eastern slopes of the Cascades . nbsp But over Puget Sound and northwest Washington this will be a very modest affair . nbsp In fact , many of you over the north Sound and Whidbey Island got WAY more snow today than you will get . tomorrow Right now two signs of the incipient action are evident . nbsp First , the Langley Hill coastal radar is now showing the leading precipitation clouds . nbsp You really have to love this
By J.Braun An impressive overrunning snow event is on tap for much of western Washington Tuesday, January 17th with bands of snow showers moving inland across northwestern Washington. The (mainly) snow shower activity has increased in coverage as mid level … Continue reading →
: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Sunday , January 15, 2012 Interesting Differences in Local Snow Today there were dramatic differences of snow--even within the City of Seattle--that illustrate some of the challenges of forecasting around . here Some of you in Ballard and northwest Seattle complained that you hardly saw much snow while luck denizens of Capitol Hill , perhaps 5-6 miles away , got 3-4 inches in places . nbsp Here are a few pictures from Capitol Hill , courtesy of Joseph Chan , a UW undergrad taken around 2:20 PM You notice the Seattle DOT plow on the job A lot of . snow It turns out there was a band of heavy precipitation--oriented southwest to northeast- that remained quasi-stationary and crossed
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: Cliff Mass Weather Blog This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics Thursday , January 12, 2012 The Upcoming Snow I waited to write this blog until I could see the whites of their eyes and this case white is the right . color It really looks like there will be some lowland snow late Saturday into Sunday . but not the heavy , widespread variety . nbsp It is clear that the mountains will get quite a bit during the next week and that the entire region will go through a much colder period starting later on . Saturday As I have mentioned on a number of occasions , it is easy for the western lowlands to be mild and wet , since most weather systems come from the west , passing over the relatively warm Pacific sea surface temps around 50F Sometimes we are